Prateek's Musings

I stopped following F1 after the 2022 season due to a couple of reasons - moving to another city for a new job and not being willing to buy the expensive F1 TV subscription when Disney+ Hotstar gave up the broadcasting rights. The 2023 season was pretty much dominated by two-time defending world champion Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing, so I believe there isn't much I missed. But the 2024 season has been springing up a lot of surprises both on and off the track. I am just going to rely on the highlights of the qualifying sessions and races, but there's enough exciting news to be covered.

It's Not So Bullish Anymore

After securing his maiden title in the last laps of the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in a controversial manner, Max Verstappen dominated the 2022 and 2023 seasons securing 15 and 19 victories in 22 and 23 full-length feature races respectively. This season began in a similar fashion as Super Max secured seven feature race wins in the first ten races. However, other teams' car upgrades seem to be doing much better than Red Bull, and that has led to Max not even getting on to the podium in the last four race weekends. His radio messages during the Hungarian Grand Prix made his frustration pretty evident.

On the other side of the garage, Mexican driver Sergio "Checo" Perez has seen a downturn in his fortunes especially after Miami. He has been out-qualified multiple times by Williams driver Logan Sergeant, who will be leaving the team at the end of the season after failing to make an impression in his season and a half with the team. He is currently seventh in the drivers' standings behind the McLaren and Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton, and could have even been surpassed by George Russell if not for his disqualification in the Belgian Grand Prix. While his contract extension until the end of 2025 season was announced earlier, there were wild speculations of him being replaced by veteran Daniel Ricciardo or Red Bull junior Liam Lawson.

Max is still 78 points clear at the top of the table, and he might still be able to win his fourth straight title in a less comfortable manner even without winning all races. But Sergio needs to reinforce the trust placed in him by the Red Bull team management who announced that he will stay with the team, and step up his performance to ensure that the team secures their third successive Constructors' title ahead of the rising McLaren team.

Papayas With A Purpose

F1 fans would remember Fernando Alonso's famous radio message "GP2 engine!" as a McLaren driver. Under the leadership of Zak Brown, the British team has seen a change of fortunes with their initial resurgence led by Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris. Their bet on Daniel Ricciardo didn't pay off, but the "Honey Badger" was replaced by a young compatriot - F2 and F3 champion Oscar Piastri in the 2023 season. In his debut season, Oscar secured consecutive podiums in Japan and Qatar and ended up at the 9th position in the drivers' standings. His experienced teammate Lando Norris had a rocky start to the 2023 season, but bounced back with seven podium finishes out of which only one was at the third place. However, a race win still remained a dream for the British driver in his fifth season in Formula 1.

This season has been at least half a meteoric rise for the papaya team as both drivers secured their first feature race wins, with Lando climbing up the top step at the Miami Grand Prix and Oscar tasting victory at the Hungaroring thanks to a better race start than his teammate who started the race at the front of the grid. Lando has had mixed luck with a combination of some poor race starts, racing incidents like the crash with Max at the Red Bull Ring and some team mistakes like the slow pit stop at Silverstone which cost him the lead. Oscar has stepped up and worked on his tyre management woes from past season, and already secured four podium place finishes including his race victory, half as much as Lando's eight podiums in 14 race weekends.

Lando would really wish to give his best friend Max a good run for his money in the race for the drivers' title, while Oscar could be the dark horse in the Constructors' championship if Sergio Perez doesn't effect a major turnaround of his fortunes.

The Appalling Alpines

The F1 outfit of the French automobile manufacturer has been through a lot of flux in the recent season with changes in driver lineup and management, but their success has almost completely faded away this season. Despite having two race-winning French drivers at the wheel in the form of Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon, this has been a season to forget with the car lacking any form of competitiveness. In fourteen race weekends including a few sprint races sprinkled in between, both drivers combined have managed to secure only ten points and the eighth position in the constructors' standings ahead of Williams who has scored four points and Kick Sauber on zero.

Last year, Bruno Famin replaced Otmar Szafnauer as the Alpine team principal mid-season; and this year the 36 year-old F2 team Hitech GP owner Oliver Oakes has been handed the mantle mid-season. On the driver front, Esteban Ocon has announced his departure from the team at the end of the season as he joins Haas which will have a completely new driver line-up with both their drivers departing. I wonder if Pierre will also seek to abandon this currently sinking ship and move to another team like his teammate. On the other hand, there has been talk that Alpine is contemplating replacing the Renault engine with a Mercedes engine. Will these changes happem? Considering their recent track record, even more changes might be afoot!

Not-So-Smooth Operation

The word "underrated" has become extremely overused, but I believe it best describes one driver currently on the Formula 1 grid - Carlos Sainz. Sainz has driven for four teams so far - Toro Rosso (now called Visa Cash App RB), Renault (now called Alpine), McLaren and now Ferrari; and almost everywhere he has surpassed his teammate and helped his teammates and teams become more competitive.

After Lewis Hamilton announced that he had decided to leave Mercedes to join Ferrari, Carlos had to look for another seat on the grid. The push for relaxation of age regulations seems to indicate that Mercedes are eager to bring F2 rookie and academy driver Kimi Antonelli alongside George Russell for next year, hence that door was closed. Mattia Binotto replacing former McLaren team principal Andreas Seidl as the leader of the Audi Formula 1 project probably made the team a less viable option. Sainz finally ended up signing up with Williams, which many fans including me see as a massive downgrade compared to a competitive team like Ferrari. But Sainz's history in F1 shows that he has mostly been at teams who have struggled and helped them past those struggles, and James Vowles would hope for nothing different from the "Smooth Operator".

Rising From The Ashes

After dominating the sport for close to a decade and winning several drivers' and constructors' titles along the way, the last couple of seasons haven't been exactly rosy for Toto Wolff's team. Fortunately, unlike smaller teams they have had two less problems - the drivers. Sir Lewis Hamilton is a modern-day legend in the world of motorsport and has taken the car across the chequered flag on three wheels at Silverstone in 2020. Young driver George Russell also cut his teeth at Williams as he managed to get a pole and score points with a car which on occasions felt under-engineered to even be fielded in a race. But Lewis Hamilton couldn't win a single race in the entire 2022 and 2023 seasons, and George secured his first and only win in the two seasons at Interlagos in 2022.

Both drivers secured points in the first two races, but the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix was one to forget for the team. Both drivers DNFed, but so did Max Verstappen as Carlos Sainz became a race winner. They got back to scoring points, but really got into the groove in Montreal where Russell secured the team's first podium finish of the season right ahead of Hamilton. The order got reversed in Spain, and George Russell finally secured his first win of the season at the Red Bull Ring, partly thanks to Max and Lando's crash which damaged the former's car and sent the latter out of the race.

George followed up the race win with a pole position at Silverstone ahead of Lewis, and both drivers valiantly fought off a formidable attack from McLaren drivers Norris and Piastri until a slow pit stop from Norris put him out of contention and eased the way for Lewis Hamilton to secure his 104th race win almost a thousand days after his 103th. The papaya drivers did fight back with a 1-2 in Hungary including a maiden victory for Piastri, but Merc came right back with an on track 1-2 for George and Lewis, only for George getting disqualified due to his car being underweight and losing the victory to Lewis. This surge in performance has really set up a good farewell for Lewis before he dons the red Ferrari overalls next season, and a great opportunity for Russell to step into the #1 driver role for next (and even this) season.

Predictions For The Remaining Season and Post-Season

Max Verstappen will successfully secure his fourth straight Drivers' title with Red Bull Racing, and might even get the team across the line in the race for the Constructors' championship irrespective of how his teammate does in the remaining races. The contest for the next five positions in the standings is going to be tastier, but Lando Norris might emerge ahead of teammate Oscar Piastri. Lewis Hamilton could also potentially pip the guy he replaces at Ferrari as Mercedes' return to form continues.

In the drivers' market, Kimi Antonelli joining Mercedes alongside George Russell is all but confirmed. At Alpine, the only viable option to replace Ocon seems to be academy recruit Jack Doohan. Could Sauber sign another German driver alongside Nico Hulkenberg in the form of Mick Schumacher to prepare for their transition to Audi in 2026? The Red Bull sisters team situation also has a lot of scenarios - Perez doing well and keeping his seat for 2025, Perez failing and losing his seat to Ricciardo while Liam Lawson joins Yuki Tsunoda at VCARB, Yuki getting promoted to Red Bull and Ricciardo deciding to move on from F1 to pave the way for a brand new line up at VCARB - anything seems possible at this point. So expect the unexpected until Formula 1 returns!

Farewell Sebastian Vettel

Before I start rambling, I have to speak about four-time World Champion Sebastian Vettel, who announced that he will retire from Formula 1 at the end of this season. Seb would have loved to win another title after spending six frustrating seasons at Ferrari dealing with performance and strategy issues, but that didn't seem like a possibility with Aston Martin's current form.

This season was touted to be a big reset with the introduction of technical regulations, which got postponed by a year thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. There were also some exciting driver line-up changes which opened up some possibilities in terms of competition for the championships and the midfield positions. Let's take a look at which drivers and teams have impressed and who have been underwhelming.

Title Contenders and Challengers

After 8 seasons of Mercedes dominance, the start of the season seemed to indicate that the Constructors' Championship would be a contest between Ferrari and Red Bull, with the latter taking over the Honda powertrain development after their exit at the end of last season. Although Mercedes drivers notched a 3-4 at the first race in Bahrain, that was because both Red Bull cars had issues. 13 race weekends in, Red Bull are comfortable at the top of the table, while Ferrari seem to be precariously close to losing the second place to Mercedes.

Ferrari's season so far has been a tragedy of errors. Both drivers have committed errors on multiple occasions and lost crucial points. Whenever they've done their job, reliability has cost them dearly. And when both the drivers and the reliability has been on point, their pit wall and pit crew have cost them because of poor pit stops and bad strategy calls. With only 9 race weekends after the summer break, Ferrari might have run out of time to be in the contention for the Constructors' title. However, Charles Leclerc might still have a chance to take the Drivers' title fight to the end.

George Russell - The Type of Guy

George has been the most consistent driver on the grid this season. He has finished every race (except Silverstone) in the top 5, and has been on the podium as many times as Charles Leclerc, i.e. 5. After coming pretty close to a pole position in heavy rain at Spa last year, he finally got his first pole position at Hungary this weekend. A maiden victory doesn't seem too far, especially with the way Mercedes has been overcoming the difficulties faced earlier in the season.

Liked By Pierre Gasly?

Pierre Gasly's Instagram game has been pretty strong so far this season. His performance, not so much. After getting demoted to AlphaTauri from Red Bull mid-season in 2019, Pierre notched his first F1 win at Monza in 2020. Ever since he has led the team from the front, finishing the last couple of seasons in the top ten. This year's car isn't that great, and if they don't improve there's a risk of Pierre slipping to the 14th or 15th in the championship by the end of the season. While he has been confirmed at the team for next season, Red Bull has an army of junior drivers ready to replace him if Helmut Marko's patience ends.

Alpine - The French El Plan

Alpine has been a decent midfield team for the last 5 seasons. But so far this season, under the leadership of Otmar Szafnauer, they have been taking the fight to their biggest competitor McLaren. Both Fernando and Esteban have consistently finished in the points, while former Alpine and current McLaren driver Daniel Ricciardo is just not able to figure out his car, leaving his teammate Lando Norris to do the heavy lifting. Alpine are currently ahead by a measly 4 points, but they might just be able to retain this position by the end of the season if Ricciardo's woes continue. With Alonso's move to Aston Martin just confirmed, both drivers will be motivated to compete more often than collaborate, and that might play into McLaren's favour.

Aston(ishingly poor) Martin

After forming a bond (get it?) with the iconic British brand last season, it hasn't been smooth sailing for Lawrence Stroll's team. While they have managed to replace Vettel with Alonso a lot sooner than expected, the remaining season is still going to be somewhat painful, and their only target would be to give Vettel a decent send-off and prove to Alonso that they are improving, as they build the new development facilities.

Silly Season Predictions

After Vettel's retirement and Alonso's move, there are five potentially vacant seats on the driver grid. Oscar Piastri's debut at Alpine seems all but confirmed so not much ambiguity there. Could Helmut Marko relegate Yuki Tsunoda to a Red Bull reserve driver role for a season and bring back Alex Albon into the fold, and then get Yuki back when Gasly leaves at the end of the 2023 season? Would Zhou Guanyu and Mick Schumacher swap seats at Haas and Alfa Romeo? Would Jost Capito choose his new drivers from the current F2 grid or give Nicholas Latifi a new contract and sign up Nyck de Vries alongside him? I will wait with my jar of Nutella until action resumes four weeks later at Spa Francorchamps.